The Daily Grand and Sundry

I think we can reasonably say that the ongoing disturbances in Tehran are teetering on the brink of being an incipient uprising.

Which means the old men in turbans have to make a decision.

Will the uprising peter out as any fad does?I don’t think so, 45% of the Iranian population is under 18, 50% under the age of 25. That is 35 M people under 25, 31.2 M under 18. That is a lot of petering out. This will not be an ideological revolution but a generational revolution; the first real LOGAN’S RUN rebellion. 

The ongoing consistent surge of rebellion  will have  too much youth in it to be contained by natural exhaustion. The old men may misjudge the exuberance, the depth and scope of the energy rebelling against them because they are really old, and unable to remember youth.  But they will get the picture by looking at the demographics, all those young demonstrators come from a pool, 31.5 million, born since the death of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah  Ruhollah Khomeini.

So since the Revolution of the Young cannot be petered out, should you bleed it out? Will the mullahs use guns to quell the young?

In Poland,  General Jaruzelski could have maintained Communist  rule a little longer by calling  on the Army to kill the Solidarity strikers. The General did not; I believe he did not because he knew in his heart that even if the slaughter of the young was successful, Communism would fall. He also knew Poles have LONG memories, and sooner or later, if he had ordered the shootings, he would have been called to account.

TIANANMEN SQUARE

 Deng Xiaoping, Supreme Leader, oops I meant to say PARAMOUNT LEADER of the Chinese Communists  made a different decision in 1989 at Tiananmen Square. He ordered the troops to fire. Why? Deng was an old dog, a veteran of the Long March, the Civil War, the Cultural Revolution, the Purges. I think he ordered the shootings because he had no respect for the generation of kids in the Square; they had not done what his generation had done. And he was going to make them bleed for their impudence.  Old Paramount Leaders, old Supreme Leaders, Cuadillos, Generalissimos,Fuehrers,Duces  think like that.

To Deng it was simple, the brave ones he would kill, and the rest of them he would buy off with consumerism. So he ordered the killings and the consumerism, and it worked.

TEHRAN, 2009

The Islamic Revolution did not come to power by war but by the abdication of the Shah. The mullahs were never bloodied as the founding generation of Chinese Communists were. And the bloodied veterans of the Iraq-Iran War are split between those who support the Mullah regime and those who do not.

In fact, the opposition candidate to “re-elected”  President   Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is Mir Hossein Mousavi, who was Iran’s Prime Minister during that war. So the war generation is split between opponents and supporters of the youth.

Now what makes this situation interesting on a personal level is that Mousavi, the Father Figure for the Youth and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the embattled Islamic regime are not only Azeris, but also distant cousins. This is a family feud, on top of a generational clash.

Right now I would bet the old men would shoot, out of love of their perks and hatred for the Westernized youth. That would be disastrous for the regime.

There is only one real solution, the abdication of Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader, and the installation of Grand  Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri as Supreme Leader.

Montazeri was supposed to have been the designated successor to Khomeini, just as Trotsky was supposed to have succeeded Lenin, but Khamenei is as clever an in fighter as Stalin was, and Montazeri was dumped. But he still lives, waiting on the call, a Charles DeGaulle in a turban and robes.

What trigggered the uprising was not the election, nor even the fraud but the greed of the mullahs. All they needed was 50% plus 1 to stop a runoff, but they got greedy and maniplulated the vote giving their man, Ahmadinejad over 62%, BAD MISTAKE, reminds you of our invasion of Iraq. Cheney must have mullah blood in him.

So my prognosis is this

1-Blood on the streets, the mullahs will order firing on the youth

2-Temporary victory

3-Rapid destablization of the Mullah regime

4-Montazeri is brought to power.

Oh, one more thing, GO KIDS, the whole world is not only watching; the whole world is pulling for you.

SIDEBAR

This is the caliber of of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri

  He also issued a statement in support of the rights of the Baha’is in the Islamic Republic, saying that though Baha’is did not belong to the People of the Book like Jews, Christians, and Zoroastrians, nonetheless

“they are the citizens of this country, they have the right of citizenship and to live in this country. Furthermore, they must benefit from the Islamic compassion which is stressed in Quran and by the religious authorities.”

TEHRAN IN WINTER

Born	1922 (1922) (87 years)

Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri

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